Brighton out-shot the Premier League leaders and still lost: what Man City’s shootout escape means for Saturday

Brighton out-shot, out-created and twice led the Premier League leaders at the Etihad, and still went out of the Carabao Cup, beaten 4-3 on penalties by Man City after a 2-2 draw.

Malick Yalcouyé and Georginio Rutter put the Seagulls ahead in each half, with Mateo Kovačić and Vitor Reis levelling for City. Gerónimo Rulli then saved from Yasin Ayari and Lewis Dunk in the shootout to send Enzo Maresca’s much-changed side into the quarter-finals.

The bigger story is what comes next. The two sides meet again at the same ground on Saturday, this time in the Premier League with first hosting third, and on this evidence Brighton have every reason to come back to the Etihad believing they can win.

Man City vs Brighton in numbers: the better side lost

Only the scoreline and the shootout went Manchester City’s way. According to FotMob’s match data, Brighton dominated every attacking measure.

Man City had the ball, but Brighton did far more with it. Mats Wieffer also hit the woodwork late on, and Rutter, FotMob’s player of the match with an 8.5 rating, caused problems all night.

How the goals went in

Yalcouyé turned in Rutter’s low cross on the half-hour. Kovačić equalised in the 40th minute with a 22-yard shot off the post after Phil Foden’s cut-back. Rutter restored the lead in the 47th minute from Jaouen Hadjam’s low cross, before Reis flicked in Rayan Cherki’s free-kick in the 72nd minute for his first City goal.

Man City vs Brighton penalties: Rulli settles it

The first six penalties all went in: Foden, Enzo Fernández and Jérémy Doku for City, and Pascal Groß, Matt O’Riley and Maxim De Cuyper for Brighton. Jason Steele then saved from Kovačić, only for Rulli to deny Ayari. Cherki scored, and Rulli saved from Dunk, an 85th-minute substitute, to win it 4-3.

Fabian Hürzeler’s unbeaten run against Man City lives on, technically

A shootout defeat goes down as a draw, so Fabian Hürzeler is still unbeaten in 90 minutes against Manchester City since taking over at the Amex. It now stands at two wins and three draws in five meetings.

That record is no fluke. Hürzeler’s side are third in the table with 23 goals in eight league games, the most in the division, and they had already knocked Manchester United out at Old Trafford in the previous round.

Rutter, Yalcouyé and Hadjam: Brighton’s warning for Saturday

Rutter scored one and set up the other, and Yalcouyé (8.1) was the game’s second-highest rated player. Left-back Hadjam (7.7) supplied the cross for the second goal and kept pushing on all night. All three will fancy another go at City’s back line.

What the Man City vs Brighton cup tie told us about Maresca’s squad

Maresca made nine changes, rested Erling Haaland and Gianluigi Donnarumma, and started four Academy players. Kovačić, at 32, was six years older than any of his outfield team-mates.

The fringe players were mixed. Cherki (8.2) was outstanding and scored the winning penalty, and Reis, the 20-year-old centre-back, completed 58 of 63 passes as well as scoring. But Floyd Samba was taken off at half-time, and the half-time reshuffle that sent Rayan Aït-Nouri on at left-back, the defender Manchester United have been linked with on loan, was undone within two minutes by Rutter’s goal.

The cup run goes on, which is the point of the competition for a club with City’s schedule. In the quarter-final draw made after Liverpool vs Chelsea, City were handed a home tie against Bradford City in the week commencing 14 December, with Premier League champions Arsenal already out after their defeat at League Two Fleetwood Town.

Man City vs Brighton on Saturday: first vs third

The rematch kicks off at 3pm on Saturday, 31 October, at the Etihad. Here is how the top of the table looks going in.

Man City’s senior players will be back, so this will be a very different Manchester City side. But Brighton lost 2-0 at Liverpool on Sunday and still came here and played the better football with a rotated team. A win on Saturday would cut the gap to Man City to two points.

Verdict: Brighton can beat Man City on Saturday

Cup exits hurt, but this one may do Brighton more good than harm. Hürzeler now knows his side can dominate City at the Etihad, and his attackers have just had 90 minutes of practice against the same back line they will face in three days’ time.

Man City will be stronger, and Haaland changes everything. Even so, a Brighton win would not be a shock. A draw is the minimum Hürzeler should be aiming for.