Who plays at No.10 for Liverpool tonight? Iraola’s Chelsea selection is a dress rehearsal for Arsenal on Sunday

Andoni Iraola can afford one rotated team against Chelsea tonight, but he cannot afford a mistake at No.10, because the choice he makes at Anfield is the first draft of his team for Arsenal on Sunday.

Liverpool host Xabi Alonso’s side in the League Cup fourth round at 8pm, with the champions Arsenal to follow at 4.30pm on 1 November. Iraola has already said there will be changes, and the injury list does a lot of the picking for him.

Florian Wirtz is a doubt with a foot problem, Dominik Szoboszlai has a muscle issue, and Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni are all out. That leaves a squad with plenty of bodies and very few easy answers, so the Liverpool vs Chelsea selection is really four separate questions.

The first of them is the one nobody wants to answer: do you gamble on Wirtz?

Should Liverpool risk Florian Wirtz against Chelsea?

No. Wirtz has reportedly eased fears of anything serious, but “not serious” and “match-ready” are different things, and this is a League Cup tie sandwiched between a four-match winning run and the biggest league game of Liverpool’s autumn. Even a player at 70 per cent is a risk you take on Sunday, not tonight.

It is also worth remembering how Liverpool have been winning. Their only defeat this season was the 3-0 loss to Manchester City, and they have since beaten LASK Linz 6-3, Brentford 2-1, Villarreal 4-3 and Brighton 2-0. Those are not controlled wins. Comebacks and goal swaps are the pattern, and a half-fit creator is the last thing you want when games are that stretched.

Who plays at No.10 for Liverpool if Wirtz sits out?

There are three credible answers, and each says something different about Iraola’s priorities.

Ryan Gravenberch: the ball-receiver

The case for Ryan Gravenberch in the hole is his ability to take the ball on the half-turn in tight pockets, where few midfielders in the league are better. The case against is the final third. His decisions can be a beat slow, his passing is not as incisive as Wirtz’s in and around the D, and he has already been asked to play at right-back once this season, which tells you how stretched the options are. Regular readers will know Liverpool’s right-back problem is a story of its own.

McConnell: the runner

The Sports Mole predicted XI has McConnell in behind Lewis Koumas, which would give Liverpool a more athletic, pressing No.10 who can harass Chelsea’s build-up. The risk is creativity. A line of McConnell and Koumas asks a lot of two players with very few senior minutes to unpick a Chelsea side that, even rotated, is full of physical midfielders.

Cody Gakpo: the left-field answer

The most interesting option is Cody Gakpo, who is far closer to a No.10 than any of Liverpool’s other wide forwards in terms of frame and link play. Iraola has used him out wide this season, and playing him centrally would let the manager fit Rio Ngumoha, Bradley Barcola and Gakpo into one front line. Gakpo and Ngumoha set up two goals against Villarreal last week, so the link is already there.

Is Mac Allister and Nyoni the right Liverpool midfield pairing?

Whoever plays in front of them, the base looks settled. Alexis Mac Allister has arguably been the best midfielder in the squad this season, and Nyoni is a natural partner because both are progressive passers rather than ball-carriers. That balance matters. Put two midfielders who both want to drive forward in the same pair and you leave the back line exposed to the first counter.

The bigger worry is workload. The temptation to rest Mac Allister is real. But with Szoboszlai doubtful and Wirtz not at full tilt, Iraola cannot rest every creative option at once. Start Mac Allister, give him 60 minutes, and bring on the fresher legs.

Which Liverpool defenders should Iraola rest?

Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk are both candidates for a night off, and Mamardashvili is expected to start in goal. Ronald Araújo, who played at right-back against Brighton in Frimpong’s and Bradley’s absence, is the harder call, because he is holding that flank together almost by himself.

The sensible split is to protect Van Dijk while Joe Gomez gets a start. Whether Gomez plays at centre-back or right-back is where the knock-on effects begin, because every shuffle changes who Araújo is playing next to.

Kerkez or Tsimikas at left-back?

This is the call with the most long-term importance. Kostas Tsimikas is arguably the better set-piece taker in the squad and the more natural attacking outlet, so this is the obvious cup game to start him. Milos Kerkez is the more reliable defender, and if Iraola picks him on Sunday against Arsenal, tonight is the sort of low-stakes night where the other option should get minutes so he is ready if an injury hits.

Can Isak and the wingers all start?

Up front the debate is Alexander Isak against Koumas. The Sports Mole preview suggests Isak could get a break, and the logic is clear: Isak has scored six goals in seven Premier League games, and Liverpool need him fresh on Sunday. Iraola has said the striker “feels the trust of everyone” at the club, and that trust is built on the fact that he is delivering.

Against a Chelsea back three, Koumas would be isolated, one against three with no one close enough to support him. If Alonso goes with four, he has more room to run. It is a decision that depends on the shape Chelsea take up.

Ngumoha is tipped to start after setting up goals in Europe, but I would expect Gakpo and Barcola to carry the bigger load against Arsenal, with Ngumoha used as the change option.

What does Chelsea’s team news mean for Liverpool?

The visitors are weakened. Cole Palmer is suspended after his red card against Tottenham, Reece James and Emiliano Martinez are injured, and Joao Pedro has a thigh problem that should keep him out for a few weeks. Sports Mole’s predicted Chelsea XI has Penders in goal, Danny Welbeck up front and Morgan Rogers in support, with Estevao Willian hoping for his first start in over a month.

Chelsea sit one place and two points behind Liverpool in the league, have the third-highest goals tally in the division with 17, and have the joint third-worst defensive record with 15 conceded. That is the profile of a side Liverpool can hurt if they stay disciplined, and it matches Alonso’s own words after the Tottenham defeat: “We have to be looking for solutions not for excuses.”

Author Opinion

My team: Mamardashvili, Araújo, Gomez, Jacquet, Tsimikas; Mac Allister, Nyoni; Ngumoha, Gakpo (as a false 10), Barcola; Isak for 60 minutes. Wirtz stays on the bench unless the game demands him, and Szoboszlai is nowhere near the squad.

It is not the most conservative choice, but it keeps the best finisher in the squad in the team without risking him for 90 minutes, and it gives Iraola a real look at whether Gakpo can be the answer in the hole. Win, and the Arsenal selection almost picks itself. Lose with a weakened side, and the questions about squad depth will be loud before Sunday.