It’s hard to find a good critique for a team who have set a record by winning the Premier League four times in a row, but it seems like Pep Guardiola‘s side have lost that aura of invincibility this season as teams have found a chink in their armour.
Despite a strong start to the season and topping the Premier League table having won seven and drawn two games in the Premier League this season, there’s been a growing concern regarding City’s drop in standards. They have kept only two clean sheets in the Premier League this season and were handed their first defeat of the season after being knocked out of the Carabao Cup by a 2-1 defeat to Spurs.
Pep’s perfect plan flawed
To understand City’s perceived dropoff in defence, it’s necessary to understand how City defends and what gives Pep’s team that air of invincibility.
Pep’s primary tool for defending is controlled possession. Guardiola is famous for explaining how hard it is for the opposition team to score if you regularly keep the ball. Also, winning the ball back high up the pitch and within seconds of losing it also limits the opposition’s quality time and space to get nearer to City’s final third. Injuries to key players and an ageing squad have contributed to City’s poor defensive setup this season.
At the heart of City’s strong, secured possession football are Rodri and Kevin De Bryune, with the latter later ruled out for the season after picking up an ACL injury, while the Belgian’s last game for City was in September. This has affected City’s ability to keep and recycle possession, with the English Champions occasionally losing the ball in dangerous areas.
City’s shape without the ball and pressing has also been very disjointed and far from their usual standards this season, with Premier League teams finding it easy to play through City’s pressing structure.
City have seen a significant drop in the effectiveness of their press, as they had 44 ball recoveries per 90 last season (2023/2024) but have dropped 39 ball recoveries per 90 this season. They also topped the league last season for possession won in the final third per 90 (7.5)) but have managed 5.4 per 90 this season.
In their last match in the Carabao Cup, Spurs consistently broke City’s press, with the City backline often caught flatfooted as Kulusevski easily played through City’s midfield. Despite seeing the ball less with 32% possession, Spurs had 8 shots inside City’s box, including Werner’s first goal in the match, as Spurs comfortably passed through City’s midfield. Against Fulham, City conceded 26 touches and 8 shots in their won penalty box.
With City’s ageing midfielders past their peak physicality, teams are beginning to gain confidence playing through rather than over City’s press. Bernardo Silva (30), Kovacic (30), Grealish (29), Gundogan (33), and De Bruyne (33) have all experienced a decline in their athleticism and do not inspire the fear factor that was associated with Pep’s City over the past years. It would be interesting to see how Pep adapts his tactics, as more teams would be looking to exploit this weakness as we go further into the season.
