‘A discomfort more than the calf’: Chelsea’s midfield anchor is a doubt for Sunderland, and his likely replacements have barely played together

Moises Caicedo is a serious doubt for Sunday’s trip to Sunderland, and the timing could hardly be worse for a Chelsea side who finally look settled in fourth.

Xabi Alonso revealed at his Friday press conference that his midfield anchor picked up a problem after last weekend’s 2-0 win over Manchester United. Caicedo missed training earlier in the week, and the club will check on him again in Saturday’s final session before a decision is made.

The game at the Stadium of Light kicks off at 2pm UK time on Sunday 8 November, and it is the last Premier League fixture before a two-week international break. That break may end up being the best thing that happens to Caicedo all month.

What did Alonso say about Caicedo’s injury?

The Chelsea head coach did not sound panicked, but he did not rule anything in either. Alonso said: “He had a little problem after the last game so we expect to check on him tomorrow. It is a discomfort more than the calf.”

“Discomfort” is the word clubs use when they don’t want to hand an opponent a headline, and it may well be nothing. But Caicedo is only recently back from a long lay-off, and this is his second scare in the space of a few games. Our read is simple: if he is a doubt, he probably doesn’t play. One game against the bottom side, then two weeks to get right, is the sensible route.

Who replaces Caicedo against Sunderland?

The obvious answer is Jordan Henderson, who has shaken off an illness and is available again. He scored twice and set up another in the 5-1 win over Bournemouth last month, so he is hardly short of confidence.

He would sit alongside Romeo Lavia, who has been one of Chelsea’s better performers this autumn and has had people comparing his passing to the very best in Europe. The catch is that Henderson and Lavia have shared very few minutes together. Chelsea are nine league games in and would be trialling a midfield pairing that should have been tested back in August.

We know what this side looks like without Caicedo, and it isn’t pretty. They lose their ball-winner and the player who holds the shape together. Against a Sunderland side short on goals, that is a risk Alonso can manage. Against anyone better, it would be a real problem.

Martinez or Penders in goal?

There is better news at the other end. Emiliano Martinez is back in training after jaw surgery and is in contention to return. Alonso said: “All of the decisions are tough. But it is good that Emi has made a great effort to be back and ahead of the plans to be part of the team. Tomorrow we will check and Sunday we will take the final decision.”

Mike Penders kept a clean sheet against United, though, and we’d keep him in. Chelsea tend to be careful with returning players, and there is nothing to be gained from rushing a goalkeeper back from a broken jaw on the eve of an international break.

The rest of the Chelsea injury list

Caicedo is not the only worry. Jorrel Hato, Maxence Lacroix (hamstring), Reece James (knee), Jamie Gittens (ankle) and Joao Pedro (quad) are all out of Sunday’s game. Alonso has said Hato will need a few more weeks, and there will be more news on Joao Pedro before the Leeds game, which is Chelsea’s first match after the break.

That is a lot of bodies for a club with only one game a week. Chelsea have no European football this season, which should make them one of the freshest squads in the league. Instead, the treatment room keeps filling up, and that has been the story for several years now, even with a largely new group of players.

Is Alonso’s style to blame?

Some supporters have pointed at the training and the way Alonso wants to play. We don’t buy it. If anything, Chelsea’s problem this season has been too little intensity: too little of the ball, too little pressing from the front, too much time given to opponents. If they ran as hard as Alonso wants, the injury list would probably be longer, not shorter.

The bigger issue is mileage. A lot of this squad went from a full season into the Club World Cup, then another full season into the World Cup, with barely a proper summer in three years. Hamstrings, calves and thighs are going all over the league. Chelsea’s medical staff still have questions to answer, but the durability of this group is a squad-building problem as much as a medical one.

Why Sunderland is still a must-win for Chelsea

Chelsea go into the weekend fourth, one point ahead of Liverpool and three behind Brighton, with Manchester City five points clear of them and Arsenal eight. Their win over United snapped a two-game losing run in all competitions.

Sunderland are bottom with five points from one win, two draws and six defeats, and they are seven league games without a win. They lost 3-1 at Coventry last weekend and were booed off after a 2-0 Europa League defeat to Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday. Omar Alderete is suspended too. On paper, Chelsea should have more than enough even without Caicedo.

But Sunderland won both league meetings 2-1 last season, and this is exactly the kind of game Chelsea have a habit of gifting to someone who needs the points more.

Verdict: rest Caicedo, and fix the midfield in January

We’d leave Caicedo out on Sunday and give him the full fortnight. Losing him for one game against the bottom side is a nuisance. Losing him for two months because he was rushed back would wreck the season.

The longer-term lesson is that Chelsea need another midfielder who can do Caicedo’s job. Alex Scott fits, and the Blues have already been linked with a January move for the Bournemouth midfielder. He is nursing an injury of his own right now, though, and at the sort of price Bournemouth will want, Chelsea need to be sure they aren’t buying another player who spends half the season in the treatment room.