After a 3-0 demolition of West Ham in matchweek 10 of the Premier League, Nottingham Forest fans expectations of the season have risen to the roof as even the most conservative Forest faithfuls have begun to dream of a place in Europe next season.
Currently sitting in fifth place in the Premier League table, with five wins, four draws, and two loss after eleven League matches, Nuno Espirito side can start dreaming of a first European appearance in decades.
Strong recruits
Over the years, Nottingham Forest have improved with their squad building, recruitment, and transfer policies, with players sold for big money value while bringing in key players at a good price.
Chris Wood was a €17 million signing from Newcastle last summer, with attacking trio Elanga, Hudson Odoi, and Elliot Anderson all brought in for over €65 million, while Nigerian fullback Ola Aina was brought in on a free transfer. At the heart of the defence, 27-year-old Serbian defender Nikola Milenkovic was signed this summer from Fiorentina for €14 million, while his centre-back partner, Murillo, was a €12 million signing from Corinthians last summer. Most of these signings have all played critical roles in Forest’s current run of form.
A strong defence
Nottingham Forest have been very hard to break down this season, boasting the second-best defence in the Premier League, having conceded 7 goals from 9.7 xG.
This is impressive considering the quality of opposition teams Forest have faced this season, where the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, and Brighton struggled to create quality chances, highlighting how incredibly hard it is for them to be broken down.
Nottingham Forest are joint second in the league for clean sheets (4) as they have been very good at defending both channels (spaces between the fullback and central defender), sitting in a compact midblock looking to draw the opposition higher up the pitch. Forest rank 18th in the league for ball possession (41.4%) as this low possession counterattack-based football continues to produce results.
A transitional force
Despite the low possession football, Nottingham Forest rank 6th in the Premier League for shots taken (148) with an average of 5.4 shots on target per game. This is explainable as Nuno Espirito’s men attack quickly and directly, using the pace and quality they possess on the flanks with Hudson Odoi and Elanga.
Their attacking play has also been very dynamic this season, as they’ve shown they can create chances and hurt teams in multiple ways with crosses, shots from outside the box, cutbacks, counters, and set pieces that make up parts of their 14 goals from 14 xG this season. When pressured in their midfield, Forest have been able to play out of pressure with their 271 touches in the opposition box, impressive given their low usage of the ball.
Nottingham Forest faithfuls will also be hoping for Chris Wood to maintain his current form in front of goal. The Australian striker has been ruthless this season, overperforming his xG with 8 goals scored from 4.5 xG.
Conclusion
There’s definitely more room for improvement, as Nottingham Forest have been known to struggle when opposition teams decide to sit in their defensive block, keeping their compact shape while applying little pressure with Forest in possession. Their build-up patterns might not be considered elite yet to be considered genuine contenders for a European place, but with many Premier League teams shifting towards a more proactive possession-based, high-pressing game this season, it’s not far-fetched to think that Forest’s defensive solidity and direct style of transition football can see them finish in European places this season.
