Analysis

Watford or Aston Villa: Who is likely to stay in Premier League?

premier-league-relegaiton-battle

Watford and Aston Villa, both travel to London for their final game of the Premier League 2019-20 season.

The Hornets faces Gunners at the Emirates tomorrow in their last game of the season. Aston Villa visits the London Stadium tomorrow to face West Ham. Both teams have equal points (34) from 37 games but Aston Villa are ahead of the Hornets on goal difference (+1). Watford’s opponents are 10th placed Arsenal and Aston Villa’s opponents are 15th placed West Ham.

Both teams are in a desperate need of a win but just a win can’t decide their fate and they depend on each other’s results for staying safe. 19th placed Bournemouth are there points behind Watford and Aston Villa but are close on goal difference. If Watford and Aston Villa, both lose and the Cherries manage to register a win against Everton, Howe’s side would stay up.

Who is likely to stay up?

It is hard to judge a team from its performances before the pandemic as teams got enough time to rest and prepare for the comeback. So, let’s analyse Watford’s performances since the restart.

The Hornets drew against Leicester in their first game of the resumed season thanks to Dawson’s 93rd min equaliser. They lost three consecutive games against Burnley, Southampton and Chelsea. Then they won two consecutive home games against Norwich and Newcastle United. They come into the Emirates after a 4-0 thrashing at home.

Below are Watford’s stats since restart:

Matches 8
Wins 2
Losses 5
Draws 1
Goals scored (home) 6
Goals scored (away) 1
Goals conceded (home) 10
Goals conceded (away) 7

Above stats prove that Watford haven’t been favourites to win in away games. As fans are not allowed in the stadium, they won’t have any support from the behind as well. So it’s really tough to predict a win for Watford against a side like Arsenal. But you never know when its Arsenal.

Now let’s analyse Aston Villa’s performances since the restart. The Villans played a goalless draw at the Villa Park against Sheffield in the opening game of the resumed season. They registered their first win in five months against Crystal Palace at home. Since then they have looked good. They played a draw at the Goodison Park and won against Arsenal earlier this week.

Below are Aston Villa’s stats since restart:

Matches 9
Wins 2
Losses 4
Draws 3
Goals scored (home) 4
Goals scored (away) 2
Goals conceded (home) 6
Goals conceded (away) 4

Aston Villa have looked good since their home loss against Manchester United and have won seven points in three games. With so much confidence and a better goal difference, it’s hard to predict a loss for the Villans against West Ham.

Relegation permutations:

Watford – If Watford wins against Arsenal tomorrow and Aston Villa draw or lose against West Ham, they stay up. If Aston Villa win, Watford will need to win by two goals more than the Villans. In other words, if Smith’s men win 1-0 against West Ham, Watford will need to win 3-0 against Arsenal to survive.

Aston Villa – Aston Villa are in a the best position in the relegation battle. They need to better Watford’s result. If Watford win against Arsenal, the Villans need to win with the same scoreline or better.

Bournmouth – The Cherries have a chance of staying up as well. Their calculation is simple. They will survive relegation if they beat Everton tomorrow and both Villa & Watford lose by any scorleine.

This is how the relegation fight looks like:

Position Club Played Wins Draws Losses GD Points
17 Aston Villa 37 9 7 21 -26 34
18 Watford 37 8 10 19 -27 34
19 Bournemouth 37 8 7 22 -27 31
20 Norwich 37 5 6 26 -44 21

Predictions:

Aston Villa are in a better position than Watford. We predict a draw for Aston Villa and a loss for Watford. These results would mean that Aston Villa will remain in the Premier League for the next season while Watford and Bournemouth will go down.

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